Bottega Veneta

Mastering the lifecycle of a trend: the Kelly Green phenomenon

Key takeaways

  • In the vibrant realm of fashion, the adeptness to decode and respond to the lifecycle of a trend is paramount to a brand’s triumph.
  • The journey of Kelly Green serves as a textbook case on how a trend rises, peaks, and eventually wanes.
  • These insights are pivotal for steering product development and collection planning, especially when deciding when to cease the production of a waning trend.

The rise of Kelly Green: a textbook example

Kelly Green, with its vivacious hue and fresh connotations, underwent an extraordinary trajectory in the fashion industry. Heuritech’s invaluable data sheds light on how this shade transitioned from an under-the-radar presence to a staple on runways and city streets. Bottega Veneta’s spring/summer runway was a fulcrum, catapulting Kelly Green to must-have status.

Heuritech’s Market Insights platform

Bottega Veneta SS21 showcased Kelly Green as a big part of its collection; from coats and bags to shoes and sunglasses, you could see this color all over the runway with models dressed head to toe in green. In the following months, you could see the Kelly Green color all over social media as the color of choice; from celebrities to influencers.

Right: Bottega Veneta

The peak of the trend

At the height of its popularity, Kelly Green was ubiquitous, embraced by the ‘Trendy’ segments and warmly received by consumers aged 26-35. For a designer or merchandiser, this stage is crucial. There’s a temptation to ramp up production to meet the rising demand. However, a deep dive into the trend’s lifecycle is necessary to sidestep overproduction and stock obsolescence.

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Forecasting the decline 

When Heuritech points to a 6% decline in popularity for Fall 2024 and forecasts a further drop of 10% for the following year, a savvy merchandiser must heed these signals. It’s not just about whether to scale back production but when and how. This entails evaluating stock levels, adapting ordering strategies, and perhaps most significantly, beginning to weave in the next tide of trends.

How is the “trend lifecycle” analysed at Heuritech ?
We create clusters to analyze the lifecycle of each trend and identify its current stage. This involves utilizing four years of historical data and a forecasted year.
Trends are categorized into 8 distinct clusters.
– Consistent Riser: Trends that have been growing steadily over the years
– Rising Star: Trends that have been growing over the years but experienced a strong burst in visibility recently
– Come Back: Trends that have faded – momentarily or for a longer period of time – but are now re-gaining visibility
– Consistent Decliner: Trends that have been declining steadily over the years
Falling Star: Trends that have hit their peak and are now strongly decreasing
– Watch-Out: Trends that were growing or stable and are now starting to decline
– Stable Trend: A trend that is always around and will never fade in style – a “basic”
– Fluctuating Trend: A trend with a volatile pattern over time

Through a designer’s lens

For a designer, the downturn of a trend does not equate to immediate abandonment of the color or style. Instead, it’s about innovation. Kelly Green can be reimagined by introducing new patterns, pairing it with upcoming color trends, or applying it to novel materials. It’s an opportunity to demonstrate how a trend can evolve and maintain relevance, even as it fades.

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Conclusion: collection strategy

The real challenge for brands is to align their collection plan with these insights. Trend data must translate into tangible actions: a gradual reduction of Kelly Green pieces, introduction of variations, and preparation for the launch of the next big thing. By doing so, brands can stay current and profitable. Ultimately, grasping the overall behavior of a trend is crucial. It’s not only about capturing the fleeting but also serves as a compass for long-term production decisions. Kelly Green has taught us that every color, every style has its moment in the spotlight, and it’s with foresight and agility that we can navigate the ever-revolving cycle of fashion trends.

Julie Pont

About the writer: Julie Pont, Fashion & Creative Director

Julie is the Fashion & Creative Director of Heuritech and merges fashion, creativity, and technology to drive both creative and business-oriented projects.

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